Thailand’s Winter Tourism Season Faces Pressure as European and Chinese Arrivals Weaken
Thailand’s Winter Tourism Season Faces Pressure as European and Chinese Arrivals Weaken
BANGKOK, November 11, 2026 – Thailand’s tourism industry is facing mounting pressure ahead of its key winter travel season, with European demand weakening, Chinese arrivals declining and continuing Middle East tensions raising concerns over major international flight connections.
Tourism operators in Pattaya report that the European market has fallen by 20–30% compared with the same period last year, while daily Chinese arrivals have reportedly dropped from approximately 10,000 to 7,000.
The uncertainty surrounding air travel through the Gulf has added to concerns, particularly among European visitors who rely on transit hubs such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi to reach Thailand. Further disruption could lead to higher airfares, longer journeys and schedule changes.
Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul has instructed the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to provide additional marketing support to airlines using its existing annual budget. If the funding proves insufficient, the government could seek additional assistance from the Cabinet’s central budget. However, no new funding package has been announced.
Gulf flight connections raise concerns
Continuing tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran have created uncertainty for airlines operating through the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump said on November 9 that the confrontation with Iran could be nearing an end following discussions with Qatar’s prime minister. However, the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, while sanctions and nuclear negotiations remain unresolved.
Reported US strikes near Iran’s Qeshm Island on November 4 and warnings of possible Iranian retaliation have added to concerns about regional stability.
The implications for Thailand extend beyond direct flights between the Gulf and Bangkok. Gulf-based airlines provide important connections between numerous European cities and Thai destinations, including Bangkok and Phuket, particularly for travellers without convenient direct-flight options.
Thanet Supornsahasrungsi, president of the Association of the Chonburi Tourism Federation, said Pattaya’s European market had contracted by 20–30% year-on-year. He attributed the decline partly to airfares reportedly increasing by 30–40% and reduced traveller confidence in using Gulf transit airports.
Chinese arrivals also decline
Thailand is also facing weaker demand from China. Daily Chinese arrivals have reportedly fallen from an average of around 10,000 to approximately 7,000.
Adith warned that annual growth in Chinese tourism could remain below 10% without additional measures, falling short of the double-digit expansion anticipated at the beginning of the year.
The decline adds pressure to Thailand’s efforts to sustain international visitor numbers as the peak tourism season approaches.
Tourism targets remain in place
Despite the challenges, TAT Deputy Governor Chiravadee Khunsub reaffirmed on November 3 that the agency was targeting 10.7 million long-haul visitors in 2026, with the final figure potentially reaching approximately 10.77 million.
Increasing direct flights could help reduce Thailand’s dependence on Gulf transit hubs, although replacing the extensive connecting services used by European travellers would take time.
Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Centre forecast in August that Thailand would receive approximately 31.36 million international visitors in 2026, representing a 4.9% decline. Its outlook partly assumed that the Middle East conflict would not cause further disruption to international travel.
With European demand weakening, Chinese arrivals falling and flight connections facing uncertainty, Thailand’s tourism industry is entering the winter season under pressure to protect its recovery and meet its visitor targets.
