Casey Barnett Says Cambodia Has Potential to Exceed Thailand Economically in 75 Years
Casey Barnett Says Cambodia Has Potential to Exceed Thailand Economically in 75 Years
PHNOM PENH, May 6, 2026 — Cambodia could surpass Thailand in both economic growth and population size within the next 75 years if it adopts the right long-term policies, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Cambodia said on Wednesday.
Casey Barnett said Cambodia’s economy has been expanding significantly faster than Thailand’s in recent years, while demographic trends could also shift in Cambodia’s favour if birth rates remain comparatively high.
“Thailand’s economy grew only 2.1% in 2025, while Cambodia’s economy expanded by at least 4.8%,” Barnett said in remarkssaid in remarks posted on his official social media account.
According to his analysis, Cambodia’s GDP grew by an average of 5.5% annually between 2015 and 2025, compared with around 2% for Thailand over the same period.
Barnett also pointed to demographic trends, noting that Thailand’s fertility rate stood at 1.2 births per woman in 2025, compared with 2.5 in Cambodia. He argued that if Cambodia maintains a higher fertility rate, its population could eventually exceed Thailand’s within 75 years.
However, he warned that Cambodia’s birth rate has already declined from 3.8 in 2000 to 2.5 in 2025, while United Nations projections estimate it could fall further to 1.8 by 2100.
Barnett said Cambodia risks facing long-term labour shortages and slower economic growth if demographic decline accelerates, citing European countries that struggled to reverse falling fertility rates once they dropped below 1.5 births per woman.
To address the issue, he proposed a series of policy measures aimed at supporting families, boosting workforce participation and attracting skilled workers.
His recommendations included extending paid maternity leave from three months to six months, introducing childcare vouchers worth $100 per month for young children, expanding health insurance coverage for fertility treatment, and providing $3,000 bonuses for families with a third or fourth child.
Barnett also argued against compulsory military conscription, saying it could reduce productivity and delay education and marriage among young people.
In addition, he called for policies to encourage overseas Cambodians and foreign professionals to relocate to Cambodia, including longer-term visas and permanent residency incentives for skilled workers.
To finance the proposed measures, Barnett suggested Cambodia gradually increase annual property taxes and expand tax collection nationwide, noting that current property tax rates remain relatively low compared with developed countries such as the United States.
His comments come as Cambodia continues efforts to strengthen economic competitiveness, attract investment and expand its labour force amid growing regional competition and demographic shifts across Southeast Asia.
