Thailand Inflation Seen Rising to 3.4% in 2026

Thailand Inflation Seen Rising to 3.4% in 2026

BANGKOK, April 8, 2026 — Thailand’s inflation is expected to rebound in 2026, driven by rising energy and food costs, according to projections from the Kasikorn Research Center.

The research centre forecasts inflation could reach 3.4% next year, as higher domestic fuel prices, increasing costs for fresh produce, meat and air travel, and rising business expenses push consumer prices upward.

Official data from the Trade Policy and Strategy Office showed that Thailand’s consumer price index (CPI) stood at 100.27 in March, slightly lower than a year earlier, resulting in a -0.08% year-on-year inflation rate.

The figure marked an improvement from February’s -0.88%, reflecting easing deflationary pressures supported by government measures such as fuel price caps and electricity subsidies.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 0.34% year-on-year, driven by higher prices for processed foods, beverages, vegetables and sugar, while non-food items fell 0.34%, led by declines in energy, transport and accommodation costs.

Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, edged up to 0.57% year-on-year, suggesting underlying price pressures are building.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.60% from February, mainly due to higher fuel prices, increased airfares and the end of promotional discounts.

Looking ahead, inflation is expected to turn positive in the second quarter as domestic fuel prices align more closely with global markets and production costs rise.

While Kasikorn projects inflation at 3.4% for 2026, the government maintains a more moderate outlook of 1.5% to 2.5%, citing continued support measures to cushion the impact on consumers.

The outlook underscores growing uncertainty in Thailand’s economic environment, as global energy volatility and domestic cost pressures begin to feed into consumer prices.